What’s up with Canada?

Housing

  • Canadian Parliament is still off for winter break until next week… so let’s talk about American politics.

    In the United States, former president and aspiring authoritarian Donald Trump is ahead in the polls. Meanwhile in Canada, two thirds of Canadians say they would re-elect President Joe Biden if they could.

    Not only would Biden sweep every province; he’d also dominate every demographic – except one: Gen Z and Millennial men. Slightly more than half of Canadian males under 45 say they’d rather vote for Trump.

    Trump’s relative appeal among men is not a surprise: In general, men are more conservative than women; and in particular, Trump’s brand of misogyny is bound to be a deal-breaker for more women than men.

    But why young men in particular? In a word: Affordability. In the last year, credit card balances rose by nearly $400 to more than $4,100 for the average Canadian while three in five Canadians fell deeper into debt.

    And that doesn’t take into account most Canadians’ biggest expense: Housing. In the last decade, Canada’s average monthly rents and mortgage payments have more than doubled – and there’s still no relief in sight.

    Young people are turning to Trump because they can’t afford the quality of life their parents were afforded – and because Trump says he can make America great again. And that’s the same reason why young people are pivoting to Poilievre: He says he can make Canada affordable again.

    So when was this bygone golden age of affordability in Canada, anyway? According to Poilievre: 2008 – back when the Conservatives were in charge, Poilievre was Stephen Harper’s housing minister, and Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was still just getting into federal politics.

    But the truth is that housing wasn’t affordable back then, either. When adjusted for inflation, the median income in Toronto has flatlined at around $54,000 since 1990 – while the average Toronto home price has increased from under $500,000 to over $1.1 million.

    So if we can’t blame Trudeau for Canada’s housing crisis, whose fault is it? I’m sorry to say: It’s all the Boomers and Gen Xers who bought homes when they were affordable, and who treated Canada’s housing market like a get-rich-quick scheme or a retirement plan.

    And let’s also not forget the three decades of municipal and provincial governments – largely voted in by and comprised of home-owning Boomers and Gen Xers – that blocked new home construction as they watched their own property values soar into the realm of absolute obscenity.

    Despite what Poilievre says – and despite Trudeau getting flamed for pointing out the obvious – housing has never primarily been a federal responsibility because residential zoning, project approvals and building regulations are all managed by lower levels of government.

    Not that Poilievre has ever let something as trivial as a pesky fact get in the way of pinning all of the blame for everything on Trudeau. Like Trump, Poilievre personifies righteous indignation… but points it at all the wrong people.

    That’s not to suggest that Trump and Poilievre are one and the same. Poilievre doesn’t muse about locking up his political opponents or purging law enforcement of the civil servants investigating his alleged crimes, for example. Nor does he lie about winning an election that he knows he lost.

    In fact, aside from his outrageous contempt for journalists, Poilievre doesn’t seem to have much of an authoritarian streak. Nonetheless, the folk wisdom seems to suggest that he’d handle Trump better than Trudeau because they’re fellow populists, and because Trump once called Trudeau “very dishonest and weak.”

    But everybody seems to forget the context: Once upon a time, Trump had nothing but nice things to say about Trudeau. It wasn’t until it was time to renegotiate the North American free-trade agreement that Trump lashed out at him – and it was because Trump was furious about getting out-negotiated by Canada in spite of his self-proclaimed reputation for being a master deal-maker.

    If Trump wins the next U.S. election and Poilievre becomes Canada’s next prime minister, Poilievre will almost certainly face a similar fate sooner or later (unless his plan is to capitulate to Trump at every turn). And once that happens, you can bet that Trump will turn on him, just as he turned on Trudeau… and everybody else who dared to defy him.

    And that’s by no means Poilievre’s biggest Trump-related challenge: While Canada is broadly anti-Trump, half of Canadian Conservatives say they would vote for Trump if they could – while the other half not only wouldn’t vote for the guy, but in large part believes that Trump’s politics are absurd, abhorrent, and apocalyptic.

    So how will Poilievre handle his Trump problem? Will he try to hew as closely as possible to the MAGA zeitgeist to keep the crazies happy – and risk alienating more reasonable Conservatives? Or will he distance himself from Trump – and risk alienating his Trumpy base?

    People say Trudeau is in for a tough year. But if I had to choose, I’d take Trudeau’s underdog status over Poilievre’s Faustian choice any day of the week.

    Pierre Poilievre’s Donald Trump problem

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  • Unfortunately, the biggest news in Canadian politics this week was the latest social media video by aspiring content creator and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. He even brought it up in Question Period:

    Pierre “Housing Hell”: That’s the title of my brilliant new documentary about how Justin Trudeau ruined Canada. Millions of people have watched it so far. So, Justin, why won’t you?

    Justin Canadians deserve a government that’s focused on fixing the housing crisis. That’s why we’re working with municipalities to modernize how homes are built, eliminating sales tax for new rental construction, and making historic investments in affordable housing.

    Pierre So then why are Canadians living in tents? Rents have doubled since you became prime minister. Toronto has the worst housing bubble in the world. And Canada has the worst mortgage bubble in the world. You’ve messed up so badly that I’m willing to put partisanship aside and inviting you to my house after work so we can watch my groundbreaking and much-acclaimed documentary together.

    Justin You were housing minister when Stephen Harper was prime minister. You could’ve prevented the housing crisis back then. But you did nothing. You had no plan then… and you have no plan now.

    Pierre Not true! My plan is to eliminate gatekeeping bureaucrats, sell off government buildings, require cities issue 15% more housing permits per year – and withhold federal funding until construction is complete. But you’d know that already if you’d just take a break from your photo-ops, come over to my place, and watch my movie with me.

    Justin Pierre, your plan is to pick fights with municipalities, bring back the sales tax for new rental construction, and utterly defund affordable housing projects. That won’t fix the housing crisis.

    Pierre Oh, so you have seen my documentary? I guess one of my fans must have posted it on TikTok!

    Justin When I came into Question Period today, I didn’t think I’d be hearing an infomercial for how great Pierre Poilievre’s social media skills are. I’ll admit that you’re very good at spreading misinformation and disinformation online. But I’m more interested in building houses than getting clicks.

    Pierre Don’t act like you don’t want to be famous on social media! The only difference between us is that you’re a total failure. You recently posted a video pretending to be a real estate agent. But everybody laughed at you, and nobody watched it. Justin’s videos don’t get clicks and his houses don’t have bricks!

    Yves-François I’m sorry to interrupt this review of amateur film…. But Canadian media is in crisis. Our journalism is getting weaker, especially in rural communities. Does the prime minster agree with the Bloc Quebecois that there is no worse time in Canadian history than right now for the CBC to be cutting 800 jobs?

    Justin I’ve been concerned for years about what’s been happening to our media. That’s why my government has invested in Canadian journalism – and continues to defend it from web giants. In fact, I’m pleased to say that we’ve recently brokered a new deal with Google.

    Yves-François You got Canadian media $100 million from Google. Good for you. But it’s clearly not enough. Canada’s private media has already cut way more than $100 million in operating costs. And the CBC is asking for a piece of that $100 million – even as its CEO entertains the possibility of giving herself a Christmas bonus. Does the prime minister recognize that the CBC must be held accountable?

    Justin I’ve always understood the essential role the CBC plays in producing Canadian journalism – particularly in rural communities. That’s why one of the first things I did when I became prime minister was cancel Harper’s cuts to our public broadcaster. But if Pierre becomes prime minister, he’ll gut the CBC, and he’ll refuse to lift a finger to help Canadian journalism… because he doesn’t care about the role it plays in our democracy.

    You know I like to add some spice when I’m summarizing Question Period. But Poilievre really did refer to his 15-minute narrated PowerPoint presentation as “brilliant” and “my groundbreaking and much-acclaimed documentary.” And he really did say that Trudeau’s “videos don’t get clicks and his houses don’t have bricks.”

    In fact, Poilievre’s so-called “documentary” is little more than a cheaply produced collection of preexisting talking points. It’s a smarmy combination of objective facts and glaring omissions designed to pin all of the world’s problems on Trudeau. It’s the absolute opposite of journalism. It’s propaganda.

    Nonetheless, Canadians are loving it. The video has already been viewed nearly 5 million times between X and YouTube. For comparison’s sake, the average CBC investigation probably gets closer to 50,000 views – and I’d hazard to guess that the majority of the CBC’s “essential” local news stories are read by fewer than 500 Canadians.

    So Poilievre really is popular. But do you know what else is popular? Videos of people popping pimples. I just watched one with more than 50 million views. Does that mean Canada should elect a pimple popper for prime minister? I guess that’s something Canadian voters will decide.

    Pierre Poilievre’s so-called documentary

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  • There are lots of good reasons to want a new prime minister. Here’s a bad one: Boredom.

    And make no mistake: Everybody’s bored of Justin Trudeau right now.

    That’s why nobody’s willing to admit his tweaks to carbon pricing make total sense: The changes simultaneously support struggling Canadians and Canada’s climate goals.

    The fact is that home heating oil costs two to four times as much as electricity or natural gas. But it also costs up to $20,000 to replace an oil furnace with a heat pump.

    Yes, previous government rebates brought the usual cost down to around $5,000. But still, how many Canadians can find an extra $5,000 between the cushions in the couch?

    Plus oil is by far the most polluting form of home heating in Canada. So phasing it out – by helping poor Canadians transition to something cleaner and cheaper – is simply a no-brainer.

    But who cares about making sense anymore? The Canadian public and Canada’s pundits are tired of Trudeau, and they’re clamouring for the “common sense” conservatism of Pierre Poilievre.

    This disregard for logic was on display in a CBC Front Burner podcast this week, in which the host and subject both struggled to characterize Trudeau’s tweaks as anything but “regional pandering.”

    It’s true that more homes use heating oil per capita in Atlantic Canada. And it’s true that Atlantic Canada has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold. And yes, Atlantic Canada was unhappy with the carbon tax.

    But three quarters of Canadian homes heated with oil are outside Atlantic Canada. And helping those households transition to a heat pump would save money and reduce pollution at the same time.

    All of which is to say: Trudeau’s plan makes t0tal sense. But nobody cares, because he’s been prime minister for eight years… and everybody’s sick of looking at his face.

    This sentiment also showed up in an episode of CPAC’s PrimeTime Politics this week, in which everybody took for granted that his changes to the carbon tax amount to a betrayal of the climate.

    The fact is that only 3% of Canadian homes are still heated with oil. So Canada actually stands a chance of phasing it out… just as the Liberals have nearly phased out coal-burning power plants.

    Still, The Globe and Mail clearly wants Trudeau gone too. Case in point: This week it breathlessly reported that the Liberals paid $670,000 in consulting fees for advice on how to spend less on consulting.

    This was presented as a “gotcha” moment. But that’s a paltry sum in the scheme of government spending… especially if it results in even a modest drop in consultant spending, which is out of control.

    All of which is to say – something that’s totally unsayable but nonetheless totally worth saying: Justin Trudeau is actually doing a really good job right now.

    Maybe he wasn’t doing a good job six months ago. But do you really think Canada would elect Jagmeet Singh? Or that Pierre Poilievre would do a better job?

    Singh almost certainly can’t beat Poilievre, because Poilievre is better at appealing to the working class. And Poilievre almost certainly can’t beat beat Trudeau on policy, because Poilievre doesn’t have any.

    Or at least that remains to be seen. Poilievre has yet to offer anything substantive on housing, affordability, or the climate… aside from contempt, resentment, and rage, of course.

    Such is the luxury of being the opposition leader. Poilievre doesn’t need to draft Conservative policy until he’s prime minister. He just needs to dunk on Liberal policy.

    But what if there’s nothing more to Poilievre than meets the eye? What if there’s no there there? What if he’s just an eloquent asshole?

    Everybody’s bored with Justin Trudeau

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