What’s up with Canada?

Climate Change

  • There are lots of good reasons to want a new prime minister. Here’s a bad one: Boredom.

    And make no mistake: Everybody’s bored of Justin Trudeau right now.

    That’s why nobody’s willing to admit his tweaks to carbon pricing make total sense: The changes simultaneously support struggling Canadians and Canada’s climate goals.

    The fact is that home heating oil costs two to four times as much as electricity or natural gas. But it also costs up to $20,000 to replace an oil furnace with a heat pump.

    Yes, previous government rebates brought the usual cost down to around $5,000. But still, how many Canadians can find an extra $5,000 between the cushions in the couch?

    Plus oil is by far the most polluting form of home heating in Canada. So phasing it out – by helping poor Canadians transition to something cleaner and cheaper – is simply a no-brainer.

    But who cares about making sense anymore? The Canadian public and Canada’s pundits are tired of Trudeau, and they’re clamouring for the “common sense” conservatism of Pierre Poilievre.

    This disregard for logic was on display in a CBC Front Burner podcast this week, in which the host and subject both struggled to characterize Trudeau’s tweaks as anything but “regional pandering.”

    It’s true that more homes use heating oil per capita in Atlantic Canada. And it’s true that Atlantic Canada has traditionally been a Liberal stronghold. And yes, Atlantic Canada was unhappy with the carbon tax.

    But three quarters of Canadian homes heated with oil are outside Atlantic Canada. And helping those households transition to a heat pump would save money and reduce pollution at the same time.

    All of which is to say: Trudeau’s plan makes t0tal sense. But nobody cares, because he’s been prime minister for eight years… and everybody’s sick of looking at his face.

    This sentiment also showed up in an episode of CPAC’s PrimeTime Politics this week, in which everybody took for granted that his changes to the carbon tax amount to a betrayal of the climate.

    The fact is that only 3% of Canadian homes are still heated with oil. So Canada actually stands a chance of phasing it out… just as the Liberals have nearly phased out coal-burning power plants.

    Still, The Globe and Mail clearly wants Trudeau gone too. Case in point: This week it breathlessly reported that the Liberals paid $670,000 in consulting fees for advice on how to spend less on consulting.

    This was presented as a “gotcha” moment. But that’s a paltry sum in the scheme of government spending… especially if it results in even a modest drop in consultant spending, which is out of control.

    All of which is to say – something that’s totally unsayable but nonetheless totally worth saying: Justin Trudeau is actually doing a really good job right now.

    Maybe he wasn’t doing a good job six months ago. But do you really think Canada would elect Jagmeet Singh? Or that Pierre Poilievre would do a better job?

    Singh almost certainly can’t beat Poilievre, because Poilievre is better at appealing to the working class. And Poilievre almost certainly can’t beat beat Trudeau on policy, because Poilievre doesn’t have any.

    Or at least that remains to be seen. Poilievre has yet to offer anything substantive on housing, affordability, or the climate… aside from contempt, resentment, and rage, of course.

    Such is the luxury of being the opposition leader. Poilievre doesn’t need to draft Conservative policy until he’s prime minister. He just needs to dunk on Liberal policy.

    But what if there’s nothing more to Poilievre than meets the eye? What if there’s no there there? What if he’s just an eloquent asshole?

    Everybody’s bored with Justin Trudeau

    was published

    Subscribe

  • If you took as gospel the good word from the talking heads at the CBC and CTV, or the ink-stained scribes at The Globe and Mail and National Post, you’d swear Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax will doom us all.

    But what the hell is the carbon tax, anyway? And why is it the worst thing ever?

    Carbon pricing (derisively and henceforth called ‘the carbon tax’) is a fossil fuel fee levied on everything from gas at the pump to plastic packaging. While it’s endlessly irritating for consumers, economists generally agree it’s among the most effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

    In 2015, Trudeau’s third-place Liberals defeated Stephen Harper’s incumbent Conservatives in part on a promise to introduce carbon pricing. But now Pierre Poilievre is running on a promise to kill the tax – even though the Conservatives ran on a similar plan in the last two elections.

    Trudeau announced three changes to the carbon tax last week. One of them is totally uncontroversial: The Liberals are doubling the pre-existing carbon-tax rebate for rural Canadians, who tend to be poorer and who tend to rely more heavily on fossil fuels.

    The other two changes have Poilievre’s Conservatives and Canada’s commentariat crying foul. First, the government is now offering to cover the entire cost for low-income households to switch from oil furnaces to heat pumps. Second, home heating oil will be exempt from the carbon tax until 2025.

    One key complaint is that these changes amount to a policy flip-flop and betrayal in the fight against climate change. Yes, it’s true that home heating oil – effectively kerosene – is significantly more polluting than natural gas. As yes, it’s true that the carbon tax is meant to reduce, not reward, pollution.

    But only 3% of Canadian households still use heating oil. So Canada actually stands a chance of eliminating it – or at least reducing usage to the point where it’s only being burned by off-the-grid ideologues who don’t want to give up their oil furnaces.

    The other key criticism is that these changes amount to regional pandering. Yes, it’s true that Atlantic Canada is the only place where a significant number of homes are still heated with oil. And yes, it’s true that Atlantic Canada is the only rural area where Liberals are popular.

    But Atlantic Canada is relatively tiny, and the rest of Canada is relatively huge. While 30% of Atlantic Canadian households are heated with oil, compared to just 3% in Ontario, that’s nearly the same number of homes – 286,000 in Atlantic Canada compared to 266,000 in Ontario.

    Nonetheless, critics claim Trudeau’s tweaks to the carbon tax create two classes of Canadians. Yes, it’s true that homes heated with natural gas are not getting the same break as those heated with oil. And yes, it’s true that this is unfair to homeowners with natural gas furnaces.

    But here’s the thing: There are already two classes in Canada – and they have nothing to do with how homes are heated. The two classes in Canada are those who live pay cheque to pay cheque – or social-assistance cheque to social-assistance cheque – and those who don’t.

    Those who can afford to transition off home heating oil have already done so, because doing so saves $1,000 or more per year in energy costs. Those who haven’t done so simply couldn’t afford the upfront $15,000 or more it costs to buy and install a heat pump.

    There is of course a more fundamental question: Does carbon pricing even work? Yes, it’s true that 80% of households benefit financially from carbon pricing, thanks to the federal rebate. And yes, that suggests the tax could hardly be effective at curtailing their carbon consumption.

    But it’s also true that the top 20% of households consume far more than their share of carbon – to say nothing of corporations. That’s why the government estimates that the carbon tax will account for a third of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emission by 2030.

    Plus it’s worth remembering that we aren’t even supposed to like the carbon tax: It’s a sin tax, for god’s stake. It’s no different than the tax levied on cigarettes or alcohol.

    If you’ve never been addicted to either, you probably resent the comparison. But fossil fuels are perhaps as bad for your health – and certainly worse for the environment.

    You’re not supposed to like the carbon tax

    was published

    Subscribe

  • So here’s a hot take: Canadians should be happy with Justin Trudeau right now. 

    On Monday, he stood up to India to defend Canadian sovereignty and international law; on Friday, he stood beside Ukraine to defend Ukrainian sovereignty and international law; and in between, he stood before the United Nations to call for international cooperation in reducing poverty and mitigating climate change.

    For comparison, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s big win of the week was getting to call “jet-setting Justin” a “carbon hypocrite” for flying to New York. Because everybody knows that “everyday Canadians” walk to New York.

    Regarding Trudeau’s decision to publicly confront India over the murder of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar: It would have been much easier to simply let Indian prime minister Narendra Modi’s government get away with it. India has the world’s largest population, after all, making it the world’s biggest domestic market.

    So it would make economic sense to look the other way when India violates Canadian sovereignty.

    Something similar can be said of Trudeau’s support for Ukraine: It would be much easier to simply let Russian president Vladimir Putin get what he wants. Russia is much more powerful, after all, and it has a much bigger economy.

    So it would make economic sense to look the other way as it eliminates Ukrainian sovereignty.

    But Trudeau recognizes that Ukrainians aren’t simply fighting to defend themselves: Ukrainians are fighting for the fundamental right to democratic self-determination. And if Canadians can agree on anything, it should be that democratic self-determination is worth fighting for – or worth spending billions in tax dollars to support the fight for.

    And that brings us back to reducing poverty and mitigating climate change: It would be much easier to simply cut taxes and leave those problems for some future government to deal with. That’s exactly what former prime minster Stephen Harper did – as well as what presumed future prime minister Pierre Poilievre would most likely do.

    Sometimes it takes a real leader to make unpopular decisions. And Trudeau is extremely unpopular right now. So maybe he’s doing something right?

    Justin Trudeau is doing a good job

    was published

    Subscribe