What’s up with Canada?

Carbon Tax

  • Pop quiz: Why have seven provincial premiers come out against Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax?

    1. They don’t know that four in five Canadians get more money from the rebate than they pay
    2. They don’t care that four in five Canadians benefit financially because the tax is unpopular
    3. They care more about the corporations and one in five Canadians who don’t benefit from it
    4. All of the above

    The federal price on pollution was first introduced by the Liberals in 2018 but was also a pillar of the Conservative platform in 2021 because economists agree that it’s the most effective, affordable, and least invasive way to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change.

    But this bipartisan support for carbon pricing dissipated in 2022 when Pierre Poilievre became the Conservative leader. Ever since then, he and his party have been promising to “axe the tax” if elected – and, more recently, demanding that Trudeau’s Liberals “spike the hike.”

    That’s because the carbon price is set to increase by $15 per tonne to $80 on April 1. For the average car, it’s an extra $1.82 per tank of gas, bringing the total cost to $5.68. And for the average home heated with natural gas, it’s an extra $5.68 per month, bringing the total cost to $30.31.

    Meanwhile, the carbon rebate will increase from $488 to $560 for individuals and from $976 to $1,120 for families of four per year in Ontario (the rebate varies by province) while the top-up for rural Ontarians, who are more reliant on driving, will increase from 10% to 20%.

    After accounting for both the carbon price’s direct effect on fuel prices as well as its indirect effect on the cost of other goods and services, the average Ontario household will still get $255 more from the rebate than they pay while the poorest 20% of households will get $335 back.

    Poilievre’s response to this inconvenient truth has been to claim that the carbon price is causing inflation – and is therefore contributing to the affordability crisis. But this isn’t true either: According to the Bank of Canada, the carbon price contributes just 0.15% to the inflation rate.

    Don’t believe the independent and nonpartisan Bank of Canada? Then how else would you explain why the country’s inflation rate was 5.9% in January 2023, when the carbon price was $50 per tonne, but was 2.9% in January 2024, when the carbon price was $65 per tonne?

    Rather than acknowledge these facts, Poilievre prefers to repeat his “common sense” maxim that “when you tax the farmers who make the food and the truckers who ship the food then you tax the food itself.” But then why did grocery price inflation fall from 11.4% to 3.4% over the last year?

    No answer from Poilievre. He’d rather assert that it’s Trudeau’s fault that “Canadians can’t afford to heat their homes” while simultaneously claiming that Trudeau created “two classes of citizenship” when he decided to exempt home heating oil from the carbon price for three years.

    But home heating oil costs around $43 per gigajoule (without the carbon price) in P.E.I., where per capita GDP is around $56,000; while natural gas costs around $12 per gigajoule (with the carbon price) in Saskatchewan, where per capita GDP is around $97,000. What’s fair about that?

    That’s why Trudeau paused the price for heating oil and negotiated with provinces to cover the cost for low-income Canadians to switch to an electric heat pump. In P.E.I., that will save homeowners around $25 per gigajoule while helping to eliminate the most polluting type of home heat.

    Poilievre doesn’t acknowledge this either. And by now we know why: He’s an anti-tax ideologue who fights on behalf of successful corporations. But why do so many Canadians share his view? Because of something else we know about Poilievre: He’s a highly effective communicator.

    Poilievre has waged a relentless disinformation campaign. And his big lie has worked so well that Canadian premiers who surely know better are nonetheless demanding that the prime minister make most people in their provinces poorer… because they think it will help them get re-elected.

    But that doesn’t change the facts. The fact is that Canada’s affordability crisis has nothing to do with the carbon price and everything to do with the housing crisis. And the reason housing costs are out of control is because provinces and municipalities haven’t built enough homes.

    Of course, Poilievre blames Trudeau for that too. And, of course, it’s another lie. But it’s one that serves the interests of delinquent premiers. And, so far, people believe it.

    The big lie about Canada’s carbon tax

    was published

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  • The first day back at work is rarely easy. But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s return to the office was especially hard: He returned to a country that wants to fire his Liberal party – and a Conservative party that’s fired up to take their jobs. Here’s how it went (more or less):

    Pierre On behalf of the two million Canadians using food banks and the students living in homeless shelters: Welcome back from your free $89,000 vacation, Justin! I just have one question: Are you finally ready to undo everything you did to cause Canada’s affordability crisis?

    Justin Slogans don’t build houses, Pierre. You have nothing to offer but personal attacks because you have no ideas. All you’ve done is vote against every measure we’ve taken to fix the affordability crisis.

    Pierre You told Canadians you paid for your vacation. So tell me: Did you pay the carbon tax on the 200,000 tonnes of carbon your private jets spewed into the atmosphere? While you were living it up on a private beach in Jamaica, the Canadian public nearly froze and starved to death!

    Justin Food-price inflation is caused by climate change. Farmers know this as well as anybody. But you have no plan to fight climate change. Plus we struck deals with 30 municipalities to build half a million new homes in the next decade. And you have no plan for housing, either.

    Conservative 350,000 Canadians are unhoused – and millions more can’t afford to move out of their parents’ basements or are worried about losing their homes. Yet home construction fell by 7% in 2023. Housing Minister Sean only cares about photo ops. But Canadians can’t live inside photo ops.

    Sean Photo ops? We’ve struck binding agreements that require municipalities to modernize how homes are built – faster and denser – and where homes are built – closer to transit. And let’s not forget: When Pierre was housing minister, he built fewer homes than we did last year.

    Jagmeet Justin, you just don’t get it: There’s a housing crisis in Canada! Renovictions are at an all-time high. Why do you always wait until there’s a crisis before you decide to do something about it?

    Justin We eliminated sales tax on home construction. And we invested an extra $15 billion in loans to build new apartments. Plus we created a tax-free saving account to help Canadians save up for their first home.

    NDP Canadians are worried about climate change even while struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, oil and gas CEOs are giving themselves obscene bonuses while polluting the planet. When will Environment Minister Steven finally do something about this?

    Steven I agree with you. That’s why we have the world’s most ambitious plan for fighting climate change. We’re the only country in the G20 to eliminate subsidies for oil and gas companies… and we’re planning to put an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector as well.

    Conservative Last year you spent more money paying interest on all the debt racked up in the last eight years than you spent on health care. Will Finance Minister Chrystia finally cut the spending and balance the budget?

    Chrystia Let’s get the facts straight: Canada’s finances are sustainable. That’s why we have a triple-A credit rating. You don’t know how to build – only cut. So what would you cut?

    Conservative We’d cut spending on external consultants, the Asian Infrastructure Bank, the ArriveCan app… and, of course, we’d axe the carbon tax.

    Chrystia You’d cut support for Ukraine. Why do you support Vladimir Putin? Have you no shame?

    Conservative Why don’t you care that mothers are being forced to water down their milk?

    Chrystia Conservatives don’t care about working families. We’ve brought the cost of daycare down to $10 a day in seven provinces. And we cut the poverty rate in half, lifting millions of families into the middle class. And guess what? You voted against those programs!

    Conservative Oh please. You live in downtown Toronto. You have no idea what reality is really like for all the real Canadians. Why won’t you axe the tax?

    Chrystia It’s certainly true that most Canadians don’t live like Pierre does: in a house with a chef and butlers – all paid for by Canadian tax dollars. But that doesn’t change the fact that eight in ten Canadians get more back from the rebate than they pay in the carbon tax.

    Yves Quebec took in 44% of all asylum seekers last year – but we’re only 24% of the population. When will the federal government start working with the provinces to redistribute these people… and pay Quebecers back for shouldering Canada’s growing refugee crisis?

    Justin Actually, we are working with provinces to address the rise in asylum seekers, temporary foreign workers and international students. But Canada needs more immigrants to build our homes and work in our health care system.

    Bloc The number of asylum seekers from Mexico has exploded since you cancelled visa requirements for visiting Mexicans. What will Immigration Minister Marc do to stop people from coming here and making bogus refugee claims faster than we’re able to process them?

    Marc We’re dealing with historic levels of asylum seekers, yes – not just from Mexico. We aren’t ready to share our plan to address this problem publicly yet… but, trust us, we’re working on it.

    Convincing Canadians that they can trust the government to fix Canada’s problems when more and more people believe that everything is broken? Now that’s a hard job.

    Justin Trudeau returns to work

    was published

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  • New Year’s prediction: Pierre Poilievre’s crusade against the carbon tax won’t work out very well for the Conservatives in 2024.

    Why? Because, as The Canadian Press reports: “The Parliamentary Budget Office says when the carbon price hits $170 per tonne in 2030, the average Canadian household will get $388 more from the rebate than they pay for carbon pricing. Lower-income households that pay less in fuel will benefit even more.”

    I doubt Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party’s ride-or-die haters will concede to reality. But as Canada’s yet-to-be-called next federal election draws nearer, and more and more Canadians tune back into federal politics, Poilievre’s position is going to make him look ridiculous.

    Once the facts are well known, the only Canadians who will actually want Poilievre to “axe the tax” are people with an ideological axe to grind – either because they think climate change is a hoax, or because they believe Canada has no obligation to do anything about it, since we only produce 1.5% of global emissions (never mind that we only account for 0.5% of the population, right?).

    There will always be people who choose to bury their heads in the oil sands, so to speak. But according to a Ledger poll conducted after last summer’s wildfires, 72% of Canadians are worried or very worried about climate change compared to 21% who aren’t very worried and only 7% who aren’t worried at all.

    The corporate carbon tax is another matter entirely. But Poilievre’s opposition to it is similarly silly. That’s because most economists and business lobbyists agree that a carbon tax is the best way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Plus, if Canada didn’t have corporate carbon pricing, then Canadian exporters would be forced to pay fines to trading partners that do.

    That’s why Canada’s new trade deal with Ukraine includes a pledge to promote carbon pricing – because Ukraine is required to have such policies in place to join the European Union, and because joining the European Union is central to Ukraine’s plan to prevent another Russian invasion.

    But the Conservatives voted against that agreement – despite the fact that Ukraine already has carbon pricing and had already signed it. And that was when the tide began to turn against Poilievre: Columnists and commentators who had been all-but cheering Trudeau’s plummet in the polls suddenly began to wonder and worry about the guy running to replace him.

    Mind you, it didn’t help matters that around the same time Poilievre referenced a false Fox News report of a terrorist attack at the Canadian border during Question Period – and then lied and lashed out at a reporter for questioning his conduct the following day.

    That petulant performance by the would-be prime minister stood in stark contrast to his infamous kicking-ass-while-eating-an-apple exchange, when another reporter accused Poilievre of “taking a page out of the Donald Trump book” but then failed to provide any evidence to support the claim.

    However, now the MAGA Republican comparison seems like less of a stretch. That’s because far-right American politicians have all but forsaken Ukraine – because they don’t think the United States has any responsibility to save a democracy from being destroyed by an authoritarian state, or because they admire Vladimir Putin’s brutality and wish he would cradle them to sleep in his manly embrace.

    For what it’s worth, I don’t think Poilievre admires Putin or would turn his back on Ukraine. Quite the opposite: I think Poilievre despises Putin and would stand firmly with Ukraine. I think that a better explanation for his bewildering behaviour is simply that he was so blinded by his hatred of carbon taxes that he honestly believed he was somehow doing Ukraine a favour.

    It will be interesting to see how this debate plays out in 2024. While we’re likely to see and hear a lot from Poilievre in the coming days on social media and through his handful of hand-picked right-wing media outlets, he still has four more weeks of winter vacation left (wouldn’t that be nice?).

    But when the House of Commons resumes in February, will Poilievre pivot? Or will he continue to blow most of his precious speaking time in Question Period railing against the carbon tax – especially as it relates to a single mushroom farm located in his Ottawa-area riding?

    In the final weeks of the fall session, Poilievre repeatedly insisted that it’s obscene for that farm to be charged more than $100,000 in carbon tax  – evidently without caring that anybody willing to do some back-of-the-envelope math would quickly conclude that the farm is in fact a significant commercial operation… not some struggling mom-and-pop mushroom shop.

    I don’t think that standing up for the big guy will end up playing particularly well with the “everyday Canadians” Poilievre is always talking about. If Poilievre does stick to his promise to roll back the carbon tax, he’s likely going to find himself on the defensive in 2024.

    So, as we leave the season of giving behind us and begin a new year, I’d like to offer Poilievre some totally unsolicited advice: Give up your pointless war on carbon pricing, and instead get serious about providing workable solutions for Canada’s housing crisis. Canadians would be grateful — and it might just give you a fighting chance in the next election.

    Why Poilievre should love the carbon tax

    was published

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