What’s up with Canada?

Affordability

  • Et tu, Jagmeet?

    Last week the NDP leader joined Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and several provincial premiers in calling for Justin Trudeau to kill Canada’s consumer carbon tax. But instead of stabbing the prime minister in the back, he shot himself in the foot.

    One day after Singh said that “we believe in making the big polluters pay and not having working people feel like they are the ones that are somehow having to shoulder this,” he shared a statement clarifying that “New Democrats have not changed our position on the consumer carbon price.”

    The operative word in Singh’s initial statement is “feel.” That’s because the debate over Canada’s price on pollution has left the realm of facts. Thanks to Poilievre’s incessant “axe the tax” rhetoric on social media, our national conversation has become all about the vibes.

    According to non-partisan analysis by the Parliamentary Budget Officer, 80% of Canadian households financially benefit from the policy. But according to a poll by Abacus Data, 55% of Canadians with an opinion oppose the tax – and 51% don’t even know that they’re receiving a rebate.

    Instead of attempting to have an adult conversation about a serious subject, Singh and Poilievre are trying to capitalize on the confusion by calling for the prime minister to hold a televised debate with the provincial premiers who are demanding that Trudeau cancel the consumer carbon price.

    They’re doing this despite the fact that Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who is breaking federal law by refusing to collect the tax, admitted last month that he already tried to come up with a better plan to meet Canada’s emission reduction targets – but was unable to.

    Then there’s Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who blames the consumer carbon price for the affordability crisis, despite the fact that he’s personally responsible for the policy by way of cancelling the cap-and-trade system that would have exempted Ontarians.

    And let’s not forget Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who is demanding that Trudeau cancel the consumer carbon price despite a 2021 video of her saying that she handles her family’s finances and that “I would say that I probably ended up better off with that transfer.”

    Poilievre and the premiers justify their position – despite the fact that most Canadians get more money from the rebate than they pay in the tax – by quoting the PBO’s finding that only one-in-five financially benefit once the policy’s broader economic impact is considered.

    But the broader economic impact is not increased inflation, despite what Poilievre and the premiers claim, because the Bank of Canada estimates that the carbon price contributes only 0.15% to the national rate.

    Instead, the PBO merely considers reduced economic activity in certain sectors, such as oil and gas. But the analysis doesn’t also consider increased economic activity in other sectors, such as green technology.

    More importantly, the analysis simply compares the economic impact of the federal carbon price with doing nothing to mitigate climate change – without also considering the corresponding economic costs of doing nothing to mitigate climate change.

    And perhaps most glaring of all, it doesn’t compare the cost of the Liberal plan with Conservative or NDP alternatives – because neither party has bothered to propose one.

    So, at least until they do, Trudeau’s plan is the best one we have. And while the consumer carbon price is just part of the government’s plan to reduce emissions, there’s no way Canada can hit its targets without it. The consumer carbon price is expected to contribute 8% to 9% of total reductions by 2030 – roughly equivalent to the total emissions produced by Manitoba or three Atlantic provinces.

    It’s utterly unsurprising that Poilievre would oppose the consumer carbon price in spite of these facts, considering that two thirds of his supporters either don’t believe that climate change is caused by human activity or don’t believe in climate change at all. But why would Singh want to distance his party from the best plan Canada has for transitioning to a net-zero carbon economy?

    Once upon a time, New Democrats represented progressive values and working-class interests while Conservatives represented regressive taxes and corporate interests – and Liberals tried to split the difference. But we are undergoing a great realignment in Canadian federal politics right now.

    Poilievre has been trying to court young people who can’t afford rent, let alone a mortgage. Trudeau has been trying to solve the climate crisis while lifting millions of Canadians out of poverty. Singh, meanwhile, has been trying to appeal to those extremely online people who are convinced that the biggest threats Canadians face are capitalism (as personified by Loblaws) and colonialism (as personified by Israel).

    So where does that leave the federal NDP?

    Embroiled in an identity crisis, if not an existential one. New Democrats now find themselves in their darkest timeline: the Conservatives have become the party of the working class; the Liberals have become the party of progressive values; and the NDP has become a party without a purpose.

    But hope is not lost. Singh just needs to stop paying attention to his social media timelines and start paying attention to the real-life timeline that we’re actually living in. And he needs to stop saying what he believes his social media followers want to hear – and start doing what his party’s long-time supporters believe is right.

    Singh is leading the NDP to irrelevance

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  • Pop quiz: Why have seven provincial premiers come out against Justin Trudeau’s carbon tax?

    1. They don’t know that four in five Canadians get more money from the rebate than they pay
    2. They don’t care that four in five Canadians benefit financially because the tax is unpopular
    3. They care more about the corporations and one in five Canadians who don’t benefit from it
    4. All of the above

    The federal price on pollution was first introduced by the Liberals in 2018 but was also a pillar of the Conservative platform in 2021 because economists agree that it’s the most effective, affordable, and least invasive way to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change.

    But this bipartisan support for carbon pricing dissipated in 2022 when Pierre Poilievre became the Conservative leader. Ever since then, he and his party have been promising to “axe the tax” if elected – and, more recently, demanding that Trudeau’s Liberals “spike the hike.”

    That’s because the carbon price is set to increase by $15 per tonne to $80 on April 1. For the average car, it’s an extra $1.82 per tank of gas, bringing the total cost to $5.68. And for the average home heated with natural gas, it’s an extra $5.68 per month, bringing the total cost to $30.31.

    Meanwhile, the carbon rebate will increase from $488 to $560 for individuals and from $976 to $1,120 for families of four per year in Ontario (the rebate varies by province) while the top-up for rural Ontarians, who are more reliant on driving, will increase from 10% to 20%.

    After accounting for both the carbon price’s direct effect on fuel prices as well as its indirect effect on the cost of other goods and services, the average Ontario household will still get $255 more from the rebate than they pay while the poorest 20% of households will get $335 back.

    Poilievre’s response to this inconvenient truth has been to claim that the carbon price is causing inflation – and is therefore contributing to the affordability crisis. But this isn’t true either: According to the Bank of Canada, the carbon price contributes just 0.15% to the inflation rate.

    Don’t believe the independent and nonpartisan Bank of Canada? Then how else would you explain why the country’s inflation rate was 5.9% in January 2023, when the carbon price was $50 per tonne, but was 2.9% in January 2024, when the carbon price was $65 per tonne?

    Rather than acknowledge these facts, Poilievre prefers to repeat his “common sense” maxim that “when you tax the farmers who make the food and the truckers who ship the food then you tax the food itself.” But then why did grocery price inflation fall from 11.4% to 3.4% over the last year?

    No answer from Poilievre. He’d rather assert that it’s Trudeau’s fault that “Canadians can’t afford to heat their homes” while simultaneously claiming that Trudeau created “two classes of citizenship” when he decided to exempt home heating oil from the carbon price for three years.

    But home heating oil costs around $43 per gigajoule (without the carbon price) in P.E.I., where per capita GDP is around $56,000; while natural gas costs around $12 per gigajoule (with the carbon price) in Saskatchewan, where per capita GDP is around $97,000. What’s fair about that?

    That’s why Trudeau paused the price for heating oil and negotiated with provinces to cover the cost for low-income Canadians to switch to an electric heat pump. In P.E.I., that will save homeowners around $25 per gigajoule while helping to eliminate the most polluting type of home heat.

    Poilievre doesn’t acknowledge this either. And by now we know why: He’s an anti-tax ideologue who fights on behalf of successful corporations. But why do so many Canadians share his view? Because of something else we know about Poilievre: He’s a highly effective communicator.

    Poilievre has waged a relentless disinformation campaign. And his big lie has worked so well that Canadian premiers who surely know better are nonetheless demanding that the prime minister make most people in their provinces poorer… because they think it will help them get re-elected.

    But that doesn’t change the facts. The fact is that Canada’s affordability crisis has nothing to do with the carbon price and everything to do with the housing crisis. And the reason housing costs are out of control is because provinces and municipalities haven’t built enough homes.

    Of course, Poilievre blames Trudeau for that too. And, of course, it’s another lie. But it’s one that serves the interests of delinquent premiers. And, so far, people believe it.

    The big lie about Canada’s carbon tax

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  • The first day back at work is rarely easy. But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s return to the office was especially hard: He returned to a country that wants to fire his Liberal party – and a Conservative party that’s fired up to take their jobs. Here’s how it went (more or less):

    Pierre On behalf of the two million Canadians using food banks and the students living in homeless shelters: Welcome back from your free $89,000 vacation, Justin! I just have one question: Are you finally ready to undo everything you did to cause Canada’s affordability crisis?

    Justin Slogans don’t build houses, Pierre. You have nothing to offer but personal attacks because you have no ideas. All you’ve done is vote against every measure we’ve taken to fix the affordability crisis.

    Pierre You told Canadians you paid for your vacation. So tell me: Did you pay the carbon tax on the 200,000 tonnes of carbon your private jets spewed into the atmosphere? While you were living it up on a private beach in Jamaica, the Canadian public nearly froze and starved to death!

    Justin Food-price inflation is caused by climate change. Farmers know this as well as anybody. But you have no plan to fight climate change. Plus we struck deals with 30 municipalities to build half a million new homes in the next decade. And you have no plan for housing, either.

    Conservative 350,000 Canadians are unhoused – and millions more can’t afford to move out of their parents’ basements or are worried about losing their homes. Yet home construction fell by 7% in 2023. Housing Minister Sean only cares about photo ops. But Canadians can’t live inside photo ops.

    Sean Photo ops? We’ve struck binding agreements that require municipalities to modernize how homes are built – faster and denser – and where homes are built – closer to transit. And let’s not forget: When Pierre was housing minister, he built fewer homes than we did last year.

    Jagmeet Justin, you just don’t get it: There’s a housing crisis in Canada! Renovictions are at an all-time high. Why do you always wait until there’s a crisis before you decide to do something about it?

    Justin We eliminated sales tax on home construction. And we invested an extra $15 billion in loans to build new apartments. Plus we created a tax-free saving account to help Canadians save up for their first home.

    NDP Canadians are worried about climate change even while struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, oil and gas CEOs are giving themselves obscene bonuses while polluting the planet. When will Environment Minister Steven finally do something about this?

    Steven I agree with you. That’s why we have the world’s most ambitious plan for fighting climate change. We’re the only country in the G20 to eliminate subsidies for oil and gas companies… and we’re planning to put an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector as well.

    Conservative Last year you spent more money paying interest on all the debt racked up in the last eight years than you spent on health care. Will Finance Minister Chrystia finally cut the spending and balance the budget?

    Chrystia Let’s get the facts straight: Canada’s finances are sustainable. That’s why we have a triple-A credit rating. You don’t know how to build – only cut. So what would you cut?

    Conservative We’d cut spending on external consultants, the Asian Infrastructure Bank, the ArriveCan app… and, of course, we’d axe the carbon tax.

    Chrystia You’d cut support for Ukraine. Why do you support Vladimir Putin? Have you no shame?

    Conservative Why don’t you care that mothers are being forced to water down their milk?

    Chrystia Conservatives don’t care about working families. We’ve brought the cost of daycare down to $10 a day in seven provinces. And we cut the poverty rate in half, lifting millions of families into the middle class. And guess what? You voted against those programs!

    Conservative Oh please. You live in downtown Toronto. You have no idea what reality is really like for all the real Canadians. Why won’t you axe the tax?

    Chrystia It’s certainly true that most Canadians don’t live like Pierre does: in a house with a chef and butlers – all paid for by Canadian tax dollars. But that doesn’t change the fact that eight in ten Canadians get more back from the rebate than they pay in the carbon tax.

    Yves Quebec took in 44% of all asylum seekers last year – but we’re only 24% of the population. When will the federal government start working with the provinces to redistribute these people… and pay Quebecers back for shouldering Canada’s growing refugee crisis?

    Justin Actually, we are working with provinces to address the rise in asylum seekers, temporary foreign workers and international students. But Canada needs more immigrants to build our homes and work in our health care system.

    Bloc The number of asylum seekers from Mexico has exploded since you cancelled visa requirements for visiting Mexicans. What will Immigration Minister Marc do to stop people from coming here and making bogus refugee claims faster than we’re able to process them?

    Marc We’re dealing with historic levels of asylum seekers, yes – not just from Mexico. We aren’t ready to share our plan to address this problem publicly yet… but, trust us, we’re working on it.

    Convincing Canadians that they can trust the government to fix Canada’s problems when more and more people believe that everything is broken? Now that’s a hard job.

    Justin Trudeau returns to work

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