This will surprise nobody: If an election were held today, Pierre Poilievre would clobber Justin Trudeau. According to the latest poll, 38% of Canadians now support the Conservatives and only 26% support the Liberals.
But this may surprise you: If only Millennials could vote, the clobbering would be worse. Forty percent of Millennials now say they’d vote for Poilievre’s Conservatives and just 21% say they’d vote for Trudeau’s Liberals – putting them in third behind Jagmeet Singh’s NDP.
OK, maybe that isn’t actually surprising: Millennials have endured an unrelenting economic grind since entering the workforce in the fallout of the financial crisis, and they’ve undeniably borne the brunt of Canada’s affordability crisis. Plus Millennials are old and grumpy now.
But still: This is definitely new. As recently as February 2022, before Poilievre became party leader, only 24% of young Canadians supported the Conservatives and 32% supported the Liberals. But by July 2023, in the middle of Poilievre’s “Canada is broken” summer tour, Conservative support among young Canadians had soared to 31% while Liberal support had sunken to 29%.
So how did Poilievre overtake Trudeau and double Millennial support for the Conservative party in under two years? By relentlessly blaming Trudeau for something that genuinely is broken: Housing.
Historically, owning a home in Canada cost an average of 41% of household income. But now Canadians are spending an average of 60% of their incomes on their homes. In Toronto, it’s up to 80%. Who can afford that?
The issue is particularly acute for newer homeowners who took on huge, long-term, variable-rate mortgages when interest rates were at historical lows – and who’ve since seen their monthly payments increase by an average of 49% in 2023. Who can afford that?
And the situation is no better for renters. The average rent in Canada is up nearly 10% from 2022 and has been rising by around $100 per month since May. In August, the average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Toronto was more than $3,400. Who can afford that?
Fewer and fewer people, it turns out: A survey published this week found that a staggering 63% of Canadians are now living pay cheque to pay cheque – including 30% who are spending their savings or going into debt just to cover their monthly expenses.
This is an extremely serious problem. Things are looking genuinely grim for a lot of Canadians right now. And a lot of people are understandably angry about it. And it is this despair-fueled rage that Poilievre has become such an effective spokesperson for.
It’s worth noting that Poilievre isn’t offering any serious solutions. He’d cancel the carbon tax, which would make gas a bit less expensive; he’d defund the CBC, which would make Canada a lot less informed; and he’d cut TBD government waste, which would mean public sector layoffs and social service cuts.
That won’t fix anything – let alone the housing crisis. But Poilievre isn’t interested in fixing Canada. He’s just trying to convince Canadians that Trudeau broke it. And he’s doing a great job.